The Minnesota Vikings seem like an ordinary team with a good record. The Vikings finished 13-4 in the 2022-2023 season, placing 1st in their division, and it seemed like a redemption season for them. They also had a plethora of pro-bowlers on both sides of the ball: QB Kirk Cousins, RB Dalvin Cook, WR Justin Jefferson, and TE T.J. Hockenson on the offensive side; LB Danielle Hunter, and LB Za’Darius Smith on the defensive side. However, this is only the case when taking a look on the surface-level side of the Minnesota Vikings, but when taking a slightly more deep approach, things seem to get much more weirder.

As mentioned before, the Vikings finished 13-4, which implies that they have won most of their games by a good margin, as well as losing their games by very close margins. However, this is not the case. The Vikings have scored an average of 24.0 points per game, while their opponents, on the other hand, have scored an average of 31.0 points per game, meaning that they have a negative point differential. This could be blamed on their defense, who have allowed such points, yet it does not reveal the whole story. Having a winning record with a negative point differential is rare, but it has been done before [many times before]. The bizarre situation, however, is that the Vikings finished 13-4, while many of these other teams with this statistic had an average record of 9.5-6.5 (rounded to 10 wins).

When taking a look at the past scores, it somewhat seems to make sense: the Vikings won 11 of their games by one score or less [as well as winning both their OT games by a field goal]. Additionally, in the four games the Vikings lost, they lost by an average margin of 22.25 points. When winning games by such a low margin paired with losing games by a significant margin, it would make sense the Vikings had a negative point differential, but it also shows that the Vikings won on an insane amount of luck for most of the games they played.

For example, during their Week 3 matchup against the Detroit Lions, the Vikings were down 24-14 during the half of the 4th quarter. Yet, they forced their way to the red zone, where they eventually scored a rushing TD from RB Alexander Mattison. Afterward, when the Lions tried to end the game with an attempted 54-yard FG, the Lions missed the right post by inches, allowing the Vikings to have one more chance to win the game. They took that chance: K.J. Osborn scored a 30-yard reception at the 45-second mark, effectively ending the Lions’ hopes of a win that day. Clearly, the status quo is that the Vikings clutched up during the end and made the most of their opportunities, and this is a theme for many of their games if you were to take a closer look.

To end their season, the Vikings ran out of their luck and eventually lost to the New York Giants during the Wildcard round, where the Vikings failed to convert long 4th-down opportunities countless times. It goes to show that the Vikings could not entirely rely on their offense to overcome the pressure during such important times.

Overall, the Vikings are something that the NFL has never seen before: a team that purely relied on luck during the last minutes of each game and it goes to show that many teams are excellent at facing pressure [like the Vikings] while others fail to convert during the most important parts of the game [cough, cough, the Bears]. It can be concluded that such a team would not be seen in the NFL for a long, long time.

[Image courtesy of USA Today]